Daily Update for Tuesday December 23, 2025

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Summary of Daily Market Update for Monday, Dec 22, 2025:
Outlook for Tuesday, Dec 23, 20255:
Overall Market Performance (Monday):
S&P 500 rose +0.64%, closing slightly above 6,875 (near all-time highs, only about 0.33% away on a closing basis).
Modest gap higher at open, climbed to R2 pivot, held gains with low volatility.
Broad-based advance, but tech and mega-caps underperformed. Small/mid-caps and cyclicals showed relative strength.
Volume was well below average (sharp drop from Friday’s triple-witching spike). Expected low volume through year-end due to holidays.
No major economic reports released (core PCE was scheduled but did not come out).
Key Highlights:
Gold and silver hit new all-time highs (silver continuing strong run, gold finally breaking prior high).
Fed speak: Mixed — Governor Moran (dovish) said more rate cuts needed to avoid recession risk; Cleveland Fed’s Hammack (neutral) suggested rates unchanged for several months. Market largely ignored.
10-year yield rose slightly to 4.17% (still range-bound, not a concern).
Dollar weakened.
Technical & Indicator Outlook:
Positive on all three timeframes (short, intermediate, long-term).
Not yet in a strong trend (ADX declining below moving average), but default bias now positive (green line crossed above red).
Key improvements:
Parabolic SAR flipped back to positive.
Sentiment gauges moved from neutral (45) to positive (55).
Smart money indicators (accumulation/distribution, Chaikin, etc.) turned positive.
Advance-decline line hit new highs; breadth improving.
Williams %R and short-term stochastics reaching extreme positive levels (showing short-term conviction in uptrend).
Concerns & negative divergences:
Growth underperforming value in several ratios (QQQ/SPY, large/mid/small-cap growth vs value) → market leaning more defensive despite index highs.
Cyclicals vs defensives weakening.
Hindenburg Omen still active (from recent spike); remains on watch until Dec 26. Historically preceded major declines, but not predictive on its own.
Some momentum oscillators still lagging or negative.
Market valuations remain elevated (S&P P/E above 22); positioning still long equities.
Intermarket & Broader Context:
Risk-on regime intact (composite above 0.5).
Goldman Sachs forecast remains constructive for moderate profit growth into 2026.
Seasonal tailwinds strong: Santa Claus rally period, historically positive into year-end.
Be cautious about potential risks building into early 2026.
Outlook for Tuesday, Dec 23, 2025:
Several economic releases scheduled: GDP, durable goods, industrial production/capacity utilization, consumer confidence, new home sales.
Seasonality supportive (Dec 23 historically positive for Dow/S&P; week after Opex up 64% of time).
Technical bias remains positive but not strongly trending; low volume/holiday-thinned trading likely.
Watch for continued breadth improvement vs persistence of defensive rotation and growth-underperformance signals.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 is showing technical improvement and short-term positive momentum amid seasonal strength, but underlying defensive shift and negative divergences suggest caution, especially heading into 2026. No dramatic change in outlook — remain observant day-by-day.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/13Zht1aUbKoR8rqdSiYUFN_qYPEKQCvPK/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!