All Hell About To Break Loose In Syria

Syria may be heading towards a serious escalation, with tensions rising across the country, from Kurdish-held areas in the north, to the Druze-controlled Suwayda in the south, and the Alawite-majority coast.

The escalation began from the northern city of Aleppo late on December 22, with clashes between the forces of the Islamist-led government and fighters affiliated with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

The clashes came ahead of a looming end of the year deadline to integrate the SDF into the government under an agreement reached in March. Fighting took place around the Kurdish-majority neighborhoods of Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafieh, de facto held by SDF. The clashes claimed the lives of three people, including two women.

A ceasefire was reached within a few hours. However, tensions persisted with both sides deploying large reinforcements along the main front line, from Aleppo, to Raqqa and Deir Ezzor. No progress on the implementation of the March agreement was reported afterward.

As the clashes in Aleppo were calming down, fighting began in Suwayda between government forces and Druze fighters from the National Guard.

The clashes took place near the towns of Rimat Hazm and Atil to the northwest and north of the city of Suwayda. Three personnel from government forces were killed, and four others were wounded. On the other side, two Druze fighters were killed and seven others were wounded.

Tensions rose again on December 24, with the release of a report by The Washington Post accusing Druze of receiving weapons and salaries from Israel, and even the SDF.

Then, the tensions moved to the coast. Government forces stormed the town of Babdah, where it attacked a cell of Alawite rebels. Clashes went on for several hours, and ended with the death of three Alawite fighters and an elderly civilian. Several security personnel were also wounded.

In response, the Alawite Supreme Council issued a statement, warning the government that it could once again call for protests, and hinting that the community won’t remain peaceful.

A New York Times report that came out on the same day, claimed that former Syrian officers, led by Tiger Forces commander Suhil al-Hassan, were planning to retake the coast.

The latest development highlights the government failure to build trust with Syrian minorities. The situation with the SDF is especially concerning as the government appears to be preparing to attack the group after the end of the year. A battle with the Kurds in the north of the country will certainly lead to escalation with Druze in Suwyada and Alawites on the coast. Thus, all hell could break loose in Syria within a few weeks.

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