The Wire - December 27, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z December 27, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: USA CONDUCTS CRUISE MISSILE STRIKES IN NIGERIA. SOMALI FRAUD IN MINNESOTA EXPANDS IN SCOPE. RUSSIA STRIKES KIEV AFTER UKRAINE ASSASSINATES GENERAL IN MOSCOW. SERIAL DRIVE-BY SHOOTER ARRESTED IN AUSTIN.//

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-International Events-

Ukraine: Over the past few days Russia has responded to the Ukrainian targeting of a Russian General in Moscow, by conducting strikes of their own in Kiev. LTG Fanil Sarvarov was assassinated via an explosive device that was placed inside his vehicle outside his apartment in Moscow.

Analyst Comment: Before his death, LTG Sarvarov was the leader of Russia's Operational Training Directorate for the General Staff. The strikes in Kiev are not exactly good news for the peace process, but neither is an assassination of a General in Moscow, so this tit-for-tat targeting is mostly a wash.

Nigeria: The Pentagon conducted missile strikes in the Islamic State-held northwestern territories of the nation on Christmas Day. The strikes were carried out on known Islamic State training camps and facilities, which have been legendary for carrying out exploitation, kidnapping, and terrorist attacks around the nation. Local Nigerian officials stated that the US carried out strikes in the Sokoto district, targeting the sub-group referred to as Islamic State-Sahel Province (ISSP).

Analyst Comment: The rampant insurgencies carried out by the Islamic State throughout the entire Sahel region are by no means a new conflict, and Nigeria specifically has been host to kidnapping/ransom-style attacks on populated villages for several decades. In short, various ethnic cleansing and genocide operations have become regular and routine throughout the region over the past few centuries, but more recently have come to a head as insurgents consolidate power around the continent.

These recent strikes were significant, but conflicts in Africa do not often abide by the universally understood ways of warfare in the west. As such, whether or not these strikes actually did anything is anyone's guess; erasing a map grid square which previously held a significant training camp surely would have resulted in some level of setback for militants, however only time will tell if this effort will reduce the capabilities of insurgent groups in the region.

Of note, the technical details of the strikes are contradictory between the various agencies involved. For instance, Nigerian officials state that the strikes were carried out by MQ-9 Reaper drones, however the Pentagon published a video of (likely Tomahawk) missiles being launched from an unnamed Arleigh Burke-class Destroyer. This doesn't necessarily mean much, as it's very doubtful that the US told Nigeria anything about the strike beyond very basic details. However, this does bring into question exactly what intelligence was used to conduct the strikes. USAFRICOM has had a counter-insurgency mission throughout the continent for decades, so it's not out of the question for the US to carry out strikes without Nigeria's help at all (which is probably for the best). After all, Islamic State training camps aren't exactly hard to find. However, the Nigerian government has serious incentive to feed the US bad intel which results in bad strikes. Throughout the third world, one of the biggest complications for targeting are local sources providing "tips" on "insurgent activity" which is really just a disgruntled man wanting his landlord to be struck by a drone. Many Hellfire missiles have been the settling factor for personal debts between neighbors, from Afghanistan to Syria and every desert war in between. This will be something to consider if these strikes continue, as very few official sources have provided any information at all regarding what's actually going on, on the ground.

-HomeFront-

Idaho: Yesterday afternoon an active shooter was reported at the Shoshone County Courthouse. 3x people were wounded during the attack, and the shooter was also killed during the assault. Local authorities state that John Drake, a 77-year-old local man, entered the Sheriff's Office lobby and began shooting randomly. This resulted in a standoff that lasted a few hours before authorities shot and killed Drake, ending the incident.

Texas: A shooting was reported in Hays County after a man began shooting randomly into residential homes. Local authorities state that Abraham Herrera was involved in another random drive-by shooting incident roughly two days after he was released following a different shooting. Herrera remains in custody this time, after being arrested again over the holiday.

Analyst Comment: This individual has been involved in three separate shootings over the past couple of months. The first shooting took place on November 3rd, which took the form of a drive-by shooting being conducted in Kyle. At least one person was wounded during the attack, and Herrera's license plate was obtained from that initial crime scene. About a week later, a barricaded-shooter incident was reported in the township of Buda, also involving Herrera. Eventually, Herrera was taken into custody by SWAT, and the incident resolved. Two days later, he was released from jail and conducted another random drive-by shooting in Martindale. Herrera was taken back into custody earlier this week, and remains in jail on charges stemming from the three shooting incidents.

Washington: A Seattle Police Lieutenant was carjacked after responding to a man walking on the freeway Christmas morning. The incident was captured on video by an observer, which involved the officer being dragged out of her vehicle and left on the freeway as the assailant escaped in the police cruiser. This triggered a pursuit, which ended after the suspect crashed the stolen police vehicle and was subsequently detained.

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Analyst Comments: In Minnesota, more details have come to light regarding the scale of Somali fraud that is currently being conducted throughout Minneapolis. Concern has been growing over the past few months as more scrutiny has been placed on the Somali community in Minneapolis, with several different investigative endeavors being undertaken to shed light on what's going on.

Once every few days, a new investigative journalist picks a random Somali healthcare site or "learning" institution, only to chip away the paint to find rampant fraud on the inside. The latest endeavor involved Youtuber Nick Shirley finding a random building in Minneapolis with a misspelled sign, quite aptly labeled as the "Quality Learing Center". Ironic and humorous mistake aside, approximately five minutes of investigation revealed that this facility is a shell corporation tied up with the Autism fraud scam that came to light a few weeks ago. This one facility has received $4 million in state funding, and is simply a shell company with no actual clients, continuing the trend of dozens of similar organizations being uncovered in Minneapolis under identical circumstances.

This latest spotlight focus also lines up with what federal agencies have had to say on the Somali fraud situation in general. A few days ago, several more individuals were indicted on charges related to the earlier Autism and Housing Stabilization Services (HSS) fraud schemes. After the indictments were announced, First Assistant US Attorney for Minnesota Joe Thompson stated that of the $18 billion in federal funding allocated for the entire state's Medicaid program, roughly half has been outright stolen by Somalis via fraud. If this figure is accurate, this would make this situation one of the largest instances of fraud ever committed in the United States that did not involve big banks.

For context, the Colonial Bank fraud scheme (which was one of the largest scams that came to light during the 2008 financial crisis) only involved about $3 billion in securities fraud. In this case, the city of Minneapolis alone is looking at roughly triple that amount of fraud, all of which has been conducted simply by Somalis signing up for government benefits fraudulently. No stock market manipulation, no lying about mortgage data, no men in suits being interviewed on Bloomberg about the failure of an entire financial ecosystem...all of this is simply rampant fraud at the individual level to the point that nearly the entire GDP of Somalia itself (roughly $11 billion) is being supported solely by the taxpayers of Minnesota (and all US taxpayers at large). As if this wasn't serious enough to convey the scale of what $9 Billion (with a "B") worth of fraud looks like, a couple of years ago a think tank estimated that North Korea's entire ballistic missile program has cost the DPRK almost $2 billion over the past 50 years (adjusted for the nature of a different financial system skewing the data).

Roughly 80,000 Somalis in one single American city have stolen almost 4 times what it cost North Korea to build nuclear weapons and ICBMs over half a century.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
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