The Wire - December 30, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z December 30, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: SAUDI ARABIA BOMBS EMIRATI WEAPONS SHIPMENT IN YEMEN. RAIL DELAYS SPREAD AROUND EUROPE AFTER INCIDENT IN CHANNEL TUNNEL. CROWBAR ATTACK REPORTED AT BRITISH HOSPITAL.//

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-International Events-

Yemen: Overnight tensions escalated sharply between several nations as the conflict in Yemen threatens to become more serious. Colonel Turki Al-Malki, the Saudi Air Force Colonel that serves as the spokesman for the Saudi mission to Yemen stated that two vessels departed the UAE without permission this morning, and sailed without turning their AIS transponders on before arriving in Yemen. Onboard these vessels were weapons and armored vehicles that the UAE was allegedly trying to smuggle to the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a faction that threatens the Saudi border.

As a result, Saudi Arabia conducted a few airstrikes within the Yemeni port of Mukalla, targeting the combat vehicles to be used by the STC. After the strikes, Saudi Arabia also called for the UAE to leave Yemen entirely. A few hours after this morning's scuffle, the UAE announced a cessation of their already-reduced mission in Yemen, and are withdrawing all public support for the STC, per Saudi demands.

United Kingdom: This morning an Afghan migrant was arrested for conducting an attack at the Newton-Le-Willows Hospital in Merseyside, a small village halfway between Liverpool and Manchester. The attack began after the man was denied an appointment after entering the lobby with a crowbar in hand. After being told there were no appointments, the man began attacking staff with the crowbar. 5x people were wounded during the attack.

Europe: This morning a "major disruption" was reported in the Channel Tunnel, halting train services between London and Paris. The cause of the disruption was two-fold, resulting from several power lines being downed in one tunnel, and a train stuck in the other tunnel, blocking service both ways under the English Channel.

Analyst Comment: This sounds like it wouldn't be that big of a deal, but due to the importance of this one tunnel (and the nature of rail logistics), passenger train services were halted from Amsterdam to Paris, all during one of the most heavily-trafficked travels season of the year. Delays have been reported all day, and EuroStar has recommended travelers to avoid trains which use cross-Channel routes until repairs are made.

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Analyst Comments: The situation in Yemen has always been a tangled web of factions, and thing's aren't as simple as "the enemy of my enemy is my friend". This latest development is no different, and throughout the day the statements from all parties reflect more of the plot of a soap opera than traditional diplomacy.

The STC is a separatist movement in Yemen that is opposing the Houthi's, but also opposing the Saudis. The Saudis know that if the STC were to win the Civil War in Yemen and actually dominate the Houthis, the STC would probably sidestep the formal Yemeni government and succeed in their goal of creating a new state (what they call South Arabia), which the STC has been working toward for some time. The UAE provides materiel support to the STC for several reasons. For one, the UAE and the Saudis have bad-blood between them on cultural grounds, but both the Emirates and the Saudi royal family also don't want the Houthi's to control most of Yemen, thus the reason for both nations teaming up to form the security coalition in Yemen.

However, the Saudis also don't want the Houthi's adversaries (the STC) to get too much control either...which the UAE *does* want so as to apply pressure to the Saudis because the UAE and Yemen don't share a land border, so they don't care.

In short, the Saudis and Emirates don't actually like each other, but work together to control the dozens of factions at play in Yemen, and this morning, the UAE overstepped their bounds, so the Saudi's bombed their arms shipment.

The Emirates have argued that that technically the armored vehicles that they mailed to the Saudi's enemies are not "arms" so it doesn't count as being an arms shipment. In return, the Saudis have pointed out that there were also conex boxes full of explosives onboard the vessels, and re-stating that any threats to their national security will be dealt with swiftly, et al, etcetera, and so on.

Daytime TV drama aside, squabbling between factions as large as the Saudi royal family and the seven territories that collectively form the "United" part of the United Arab Emirates usually isn't great for stability in the Middle East, especially since major offensives are currently underway throughout Yemen between several different factions. Whether it's directly related to the drama between the Saudis and the Emirates is not entirely clear, but right now there's a whole lot of shooting going on in the city of Makala, the same city struck earlier this morning. Though it was probably planned some time ago, various factions (including STC) are trying to capitalize on the squabbling between the big kids on the playground, so as to improve their own tactical positions on the battlefield. Most Middle Eastern nations have picked up on this as well, and the Qataris and Kuwaitis have both issued statements of solidarity regarding the deterioration of the security situation in Yemen over the past 12 hours or so.

All in all, a busy day for the Middle East, and things aren't over just yet.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
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