Nuclear Stability Under Strain: Iran, New START, North Korea, and Rising Risks

Over the past forty-eight hours, several developments across multiple regions have added pressure to the global nuclear stability environment.

In this DEFCON Warning System Strategic Stability Briefing, we examine four unfolding issues that do not represent an immediate nuclear threat — but which collectively increase long-term risks of miscalculation, escalation, and deterrence erosion.

This briefing covers:

Uncertainty surrounding the future of the New START nuclear arms-control treaty

Escalatory political rhetoric in the United States regarding Iran’s nuclear programme

North Korea’s response to U.S. military actions and continued deterrence signalling

Growing internal instability inside Iran and its strategic implications

None of these developments require a change in the current DEFCON level.
However, taken together, they highlight conditions that make future nuclear crises more difficult to manage.

This analysis focuses on strategic stability, deterrence, and risk dynamics — not alarmism.

About The DEFCON Warning System
The DEFCON Warning System provides independent analysis of global nuclear threats and strategic stability. We do not represent any government or military organisation.

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