The Wire - January 14, 2026

//The Wire//2300Z January 14, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MINNEAPOLIS UNREST CONTINUES. INDICATORS OF CONFLICT MOUNTING IN MIDDLE EAST.//

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-International Events-

Middle East: Indications and warnings are mounting concerning increased conflict in the region. Over the past few days, several nations have re-iterated urgent requests for their citizens to depart Iran, and the White House has continued to issue increasingly more serious rhetoric regarding potential military action.

Analyst Comment: As always, what exactly is on the menu is anyone's guess. Timeline wise, if strikes are intended to be carried out by the US as they were last time (as in, a one-and-done strike mission), no large-scale troop movement will be necessary. However, if a more prolonged conflict is being planned, a lot more equipment is going to be needed in theater.

Over the past few days, rumors have emerged indicating that the United States is reducing a presence at Al-Udeid Airbase in Qatar, presumably so as to reduce the potential for retaliatory strikes from the Iranians. This is the same base that was struck by Iran for face-saving reasons following the American operation in June of last year. As of this morning, the Sentinel 2 satellite conducted a pass of this airbase, providing fresh imagery of the facility. At 0712Z no abnormal aviation presence has been noted at the airbase, so if an evacuation or aircraft re-location has been ordered it's not discernible from satellite imagery just yet. It's certainly possible that non-essential personnel are being evacuated, but the late-stage indicator last time was the mass exodus of anything with wings from this facility before the strikes. Last year, every single aircraft was flown out of "The 'Deid" and relocated to Saudi Arabia several days before the American strikes (and the expected Iranian counterattack).

More broadly, more aircraft have been observed conducting flights around the region over the past few weeks, though as always these are very challenging indicators to monitor during the initial stages of operational planning.

-HomeFront-

Minneapolis: Overnight the general state of unrest has continued as before, with demonstrators settling in for the long haul. Yesterday evening protesters expanded unrest operations to a new hotel, the Hilton Graduate hotel adjacent to the University of Minnesota. A few hundred demonstrators were observed at this location carrying out the standard tactic of making as much noise as possible to prevent the ICE agents inside from being able to sleep well.

To the south, the persistent protest at the Whipple Federal Building has continued, and has remained low-intensity throughout the daytime, with bursts of more kinetic unrest later in the evenings. Around the city, more roving protests are common, as Defend612 members have continued to follow ICE convoys around the city, and these amateur Quick Reaction Force (QRF) efforts often result in pop-up protests at the site of a raid, and due to the active nature of these incidents, a handful of activists are usually arrested at each raid site after they attempt to either conduct a vehicle ramming or otherwise interfere with federal operations.

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Analyst Comments: Concerning the demonstrations in Minneapolis, it's helpful to get a bead on the atmospherics (AKA the general feeling or mood in the air) of how things are going. This helps with understanding the wider context of how the unrest is progressing, and in Minneapolis, demonstrators are trying to emulate the persistent protests of Portland, Oregon. West coast ANTIFA cells have industrialized the practice of protest, and they fully understand the impact of low-intensity, but long-term protests. The video clips of fights and tear gas routinely make the B Roll footage of news reports, however what is rarely documented is the long term efforts underway at certain sites.

Taking the demonstrations at the Whipple Building as an example, throughout the day, multiple shifts of protesters have been observed, so that the site has persistent coverage. More elderly participants take up station during the day, and help to photograph and log any vehicle (especially personal vehicles) entering and exiting the facility. During the daytime, this is merely a presence effort, and very little happens at this site. As night falls, the crowd becomes discernibly younger...and larger. The more militant and violent demonstrators usually show up around 2200 local time, and the kinetic activity kicks off from there.

This day/night distinction is also not a blanket policy throughout the city. Each protest site is different, and has a different organization. At the site of the Renee Good shooting, the effect is reversed: More kinetic activity is observed during the day, as ICE are carrying out raids in the more residential parts of the city. When night falls in these residential areas, protestors evaporate for the most part. These observations on the minute details of how demonstrations are being carried out grants important insight into how they're being organized.

But most importantly, it is the boring day-to-day, persistent demonstrations that are being carried out, which serves as a model for other cities. That's the general plan in play here; dialing violence up or down as needed, based on varying situations. At some sites, the boring and routine protests are taking place, which aren't even worth mentioning. However, if the powers that be decide that the dial needs to be turned up a notch, these low-intensity protests can be dialed up to eleven more quickly than starting from scratch in an area. Once a foothold or presence is set in an area, it's easier to expand. All of this helps understand that activists are in this for the long haul, and they are streamlining the logistics to continue protests for weeks if so desired.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
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