Iran Update

In a potential full-scale war with Iran as of early 2026—escalating from the 2025 Twelve-Day War and ongoing tensions—a conflict could unfold as a multifaceted, asymmetric struggle blending conventional and unconventional tactics. Initially, it might involve U.S.-led airstrikes and cyber operations targeting Iran's remaining nuclear sites, military bases, and command centers, building on Operation Midnight Hammer's precedents, while Iran retaliates with ballistic missile barrages on U.S. allies like Israel and Gulf states, and proxy attacks via weakened groups like the Houthis or Hezbollah disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea.Ground operations would likely be limited, avoiding a prolonged invasion due to Iran's rugged terrain and lessons from Iraq/Afghanistan quagmires; instead, expect naval blockades to choke oil exports, triggering global energy spikes. Domestically, Iran's regime—already strained by mass protests—could face intensified internal sabotage or uprisings, potentially accelerating collapse, but with risks of chemical weapon use or guerrilla warfare prolonging chaos.Economically and geopolitically, the war might draw in Russia and China through arms support or vetoes at the UN, escalating to a broader proxy conflict, while humanitarian crises (refugee flows, civilian casualties in urban areas) strain international aid. Overall, it would resemble a high-tech, hybrid war: short but intense phases of destruction followed by years of instability, with no clear victors and profound global repercussions like economic recessions and heightened nuclear proliferation fears. Diplomacy remains the preferable path to avert such a scenario.