Tom Lee: 2026 Outlook

Looking back at 2026, the year is likely to be seen as an extension of the bull market that began in 2022, marked by clearer signs of economic resilience—yet also shaped by three major sources of uncertainty that could trigger a significant market drawdown. First, the market is navigating the transition to a new Federal Reserve leadership, a process that typically involves testing and potential corrections as policy direction becomes clear. Second, the White House is expected to take a more active role in picking economic winners and losers, expanding beyond 2025’s disruptions in IT consulting and healthcare to affect a broader range of industries and even countries—fueling volatility, as hinted by gold’s rally. Third, while AI remains a dominant investment narrative, questions linger about how much of its potential is already priced in, alongside concerns over energy demands, data center capacity, and sustainability; until the market gains confidence in complementary drivers like a recovering housing sector or rising ISM data, this transitional phase may create enough doubt to produce a correction that feels like a bear market.
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