85 seconds to midnight

Doomsday Clock

2026, Jan 27th 85 seconds to midnight

Closest to catastrophe since the Clock was created

World with high existential risks, intended to motivate action

Midnight is civilization-ending disaster, existential risks.

Panel of experts sets it once a year

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Science and Security Board

https://thebulletin.org/about-us/science-and-security-board/

https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/timeline/

Origins

1947, scientists concerned about nuclear weapons after World War II

Many had worked on Manhattan.

Set at 7 minutes to midnight, to express urgency of nuclear danger.

Late October 1962

Purpose

To warn the public and policymakers, threat of human-made global catastrophe.

Forward and back 27 times

Best time, 1991, end of the Cold War.

2025, risk from technologies and international discord

2026, Jan 27th 85 seconds to midnight

Combination of Global Risks

Nuclear Weapons and Warfare

The original and still core risk

Expansion, modernization, and poor arms control, miscalculation, accident, sabotage, madness or conflict.

Interview with Alfred Werner, Liberal Judaism, no. 16 (April–May 1949), Einstein Archive 30-1104

https://wist.info/einstein-albert/25402/

“I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”

Conventional War

Limitations of one resource, water, food, land

Civil war

Mass murder and genocide

Climate Change

Severe climate disruption

Rising temperatures, extreme weather, and slow policy responses, cascading impacts.

Climate manipulation, stratospheric spraying

Disruptive Technologies

Artificial intelligence, misinformation, information warfare, cyber instability, or autonomous weapons.

“colossal opportunities and threats that are difficult to predict now.”

“the one who becomes the leader in this sphere will be the ruler of the world.”

“it would be strongly undesirable if someone wins a monopolist position”

“when one party’s drones are destroyed by drones of another, it will have no other choice but to surrender.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin (2017)

Undersea cable destruction

Deepfakes
Biological Threats & Biosecurity

Engineered pathogens, pandemics, gaps in biodefense systems are concerns in recent assessments.

James Bond level villains

Arrogant philanthropists

Reducing sperm counts

Chemical accidents and attacks

Geopolitical Tensions & Governance

Breakdown in international cooperation, rising nationalism, rising antinationalism, loss of the nation state, international ‘elites’

Maleficent international organisations.

Population reduction advocates

Financial manipulation

Mass migration

Control and Manipulation of Global Food Supply

Misinformation and scaremongering

Monoculture of plants and animals

Environmental sabotage and soil degradation

Economic land domination / imperialism

The clock can be pushed back

Reduce risk of nuclear war

Stop climate manipulation

Plant more trees, localise food production.

Egalitarian food production

Egalitarian access to therapeutics

Stronger oversight of gain-of-function and dual-use research

Clear international rules on biological research

Transparency instead of secrecy during outbreaks

Control high risk technologies

Keep humans in the loop

Science / evidence-based policymaking

Change most national and world leaders
Revelation 6, The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse

Conquest, War, Famine, and Death.

White Horse
Bow and a crown, he rode out as a conqueror bent on conquest.
Military conquest.
Pestilence.

Fiery red Horse
Rider was given power to take peace from the earth and to make people kill each other. To him was given a large sword.
Violent bloodshed.

Black Horse
Its rider was holding a pair of scales in his hand.
High food prices.
Food control and famine.
Pale Horse
It’s rider was named Death, and Hades was following close behind him. They were given power over a fourth of the earth to kill by sword, famine and plague, and by the wild beasts of the earth.