The Wire - February 18, 2026

//The Wire//2300Z February 18, 2026//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: SURGE OF AMERICAN MILITARY FORCES CONTINUES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. IRANIAN FORCES DIG IN BY REINFORCING KEY SITES AND MILITARY FACILITIES.//

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-International Events-

Middle East: The surge of American forces continued overnight, with a total of 6x E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft completing their movement into theater overnight. Early this morning, multiple flights of KC-135 refueling tankers crossed the Atlantic in flights of 5x aircraft at a time, landing at various bases along the way before making their way into CENTCOM. So far, roughly 25x tankers have flown into CENTCOM over the past few days, along with many other support and logistics aircraft. This morning, the USS *GERALD FORD* was detected on AIS receivers off the coast of Morocco, having made the Atlantic crossing sooner than expected.

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Analyst Comments: Timeline wise, if the US intends to kick things off on Friday (after the stock markets close) or early Saturday morning, everything is lining up to support strikes taking place this weekend at the earliest. However, lunar illumination peaks to over 90% next weekend, which would provide an optimal window for various nocturnal activities.

On the diplomatic front, all sides are putting up a false-front, with both the United States and Iranian diplomats stating rather sheepishly that no agreements have been reached, but the talks have so far been positive. However, a nation does not move nearly a quarter of her Air Force (and a third of her Navy) overnight if things are going well. The cessation of talks (even on positive terms) reflects the reality of the situation, which the Iranians have been preparing for. IRGC forces have been fortifying sites around the country for weeks, with signs of late-stage preparations being made. At the Isfahan Nuclear Site, for example, all of the tunnel entrances have been covered with dirt. These fortification efforts were conducted sometime between January 22th and February 13th, when commercial satellite imagery passes were conducted. This aligns with other fortification efforts observed around the country, most of which are last-ditch efforts that are only usually undertaken in sheer desperation, in the days before strikes begin. So if all of this is one giant PSYOP to apply pressure for negotiations, it might be working a little too well...the Iranians seem to be very convinced that they will be bombed no matter what, so it's likely that they have no reason to negotiate at all at this point. Especially since the latest round of talks has concluded, with no future date yet scheduled for the next round of talks.

Consequently, even though all sides have made statements of polite indifference toward peace talks, actions speak louder than words, and all sides are moving into the final stages of a major military campaign at breakneck pace.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
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