IS THE WORLD ECONOMY RECOVERING?

Global growth is expected to moderate from 5.9 in 2021 to 4.4 percent in 2022—half a percentage point lower for 2022 than in the October World Economic Outlook (WEO), largely reflecting forecast markdowns in the two largest economies.
Since governments have lifted lockdowns. Economies have begun to recover. Analysts are pencilling in global GDP growth of 7% or more in the third quarter of this year, compared with the second. By December 2022, it is projected that there is probability of 7.7 percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This is an increase from the projection of the preceding month where the probability came to 6.83 percent. The biggest risk this year is that policymakers call the post-pandemic recovery wrong. The coronavirus isn’t going to be public enemy for the global economy in 2022. The biggest dangers this year will stem from inflation and the risk that policymakers will call the post-Covid recovery wrong. This is the year we’ll find out whether the global economy is robust enough to get by with less help from governments and central banks. And whether inflation is a temporary byproduct of Covid or a more persistent problem.