What is the VIX Telling Us About a Rally in March?

(3/1/22) Markets are opening lower over concerns about Russia, but the VIX is telling a slightly different story: Remember when we shut down the economy in March 2020?? Runaway volatility was based on uncertainty seeded by the COVID epidemic. Most recently, despite the 10% market correction over the last two months, concerns and sell-offs over the Fed's hiking of interest rates, liquidity, and the Russian invasion, volatility has risen only mildly. However, markets are over-sold, sentiment remains negative, this typically leads to a short-term bottoming, and subsequent market rally. In fact, markets have held up pretty well, considering everything that's been going on. There are more stocks at 52-week lows than at any period over the last 30-years. The ratio of smart money vs dumb money is at levels that are consistent with a short-term market-bottom. A reflexive rally on ANY type of positive news would not be surprising this month...providing an opportunity to rebalance risk as we head into the rest of the year.
Presented by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts
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