Dalek News 10 MAR 202

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The More things change the more things stay the same.

Prediction Dalek has this to say:
The International Crisis Behavior project protocol can be applied to the Ukrainian crisis.
The ICB defines seven variables, which are almost identical to those of the Crimean crisis of 2014.
The predicted outcome is therefore a Russian Victory, unless significant variations in tactics are employed.

Gravity is a variable that identifies the object of gravest threat at any time during the crisis.
For the Russians, The Ukrainian conflict is seen as existential, for the US, it is still a threat to influence.
The dyad is 0 to the US and 1 to Russia.

Proximity is a binary variable that measures which country is closer to the geographic location of
the crisis. The crisis is in Ukraine and along Russia’s southwestern border.
The dyad is 0 to the US and 1 to Russia.

Population is a binary variable for the larger population size. The US population is larger, so the dyad
is 1 to the US and 0 to Russia.

The Regime variable is usually expressed as a binary, with 1 for a more democratic government.
In this case the United States is a Full Democracy, while Russia is an Open Autocracy.
The dyad is 1 to the US and 0 to Russia.

The Second Strike variable concerns whether or not the actors possess forces able to assure a nuclear
response after absorbing an initial strike.
For the Second Strike, the dyad is 1 to the US and 1 to Russia.

The Security variable controls for the possibility of states with underlying, long-standing disputes that may be less likely to prevail in crises.
The dyad is 0 to the US and 1 to Russia.

The Violence variable measures intensity and ranges from 1, no violence, to 4, full-scale war.

The United States did not use any force, scoring 1.
The Russians participated at level 3, significant clashes that were restrained from un-restricted war.

The result, probably another Russian Win

Winston Dalek Says

We will fight them on Facebook,
we will fight them on twitter,
we will fight the on You tube and Whats App,
And if our social media lasts for a thousand years,
they them his hers will say,
this was the birthing persons most stunning and brave hour.

And we will do bugger all.