Why Sanctioning Russia Will Fail

Why Sanctioning Russia Will Fail
In response to the brutal, unprovoked, and illegal invasion of Ukraine, the U.S., the U.K., and countries in the European Union have effectively cut Russia out of the global financial system.

Germany suspended construction of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline and is talking about beefing up its military. Italy and France are seizing yachts and other assets of Russian citizens on the grounds that they are kleptocrats profiting from an outlaw regime. U.S. Congress is contemplating a bill that would let the government grab Russian assets in America above $5 million and use the proceeds to aid Ukraine.

A slew of private companies have also voluntarily withdrawn from Russia. Apple and Google Pay have stopped working on Moscow's public transit system. Russian filmmakers with ties to the government have been disinvited from showing their work abroad. The International Cat Federation has banned Russian felines from competition.

Such actions are of course understandable in the face of unjustifiable aggression, but will they actually work to facilitate Russia's withdrawal from Ukraine or weaken Vladimir Putin's regime? If history is any guide, the simple answer is no. And not only that, they will mostly harm the already long-suffering people of Russia and quite possibly be used by Putin to justify even more egregious behavior.

Historically, sanctions, especially in authoritarian regimes, often galvanize the targeted countries. U.S. economic sanctions on imperial Japan before World War II were taken as an act of war and encouraged more repression at home and expansion abroad. An October 2019 Government Accountability Office report found sanctions often have unintended consequences, including "negative impacts on human rights or public health."