China's economy is in danger of falling in 2022 - under pressure as energy crisis deepens

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China's provincial government is bracing for a tough year, with tax growth expected to slow, land sales revenue to fall, and spending to support the downturn, so fiscal tightness I'm under pressure.

According to an analysis of budget reports issued by 30 of China's 31 prefectures, some local governments said general revenue this year was significantly lower than the expected national economic growth target of at least 5 percent. I am predicting. In addition, a downturn in the housing market is likely to continue to hurt land sales revenue in vast areas of the country, with the wealthiest states suffering the worst.

The worsening situation means the state struggles to pay for infrastructure spending to fuel economic growth, is forced to borrow more to fund new projects and pushes up debt levels that have been ordered to cut.

According to Bloomberg calculations, 28 states predicted in their released budget reports that revenue growth this year will slow compared to 2021, and 15 states are expected to grow their general revenue at half or even slower rates last year. This includes Beijing, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Chongqing, which have the highest GDP per capita in China.

Zhang Yikun, a senior researcher at the China Society for Finance and Economics, a think tank led by former finance minister Lou Jiwei, said: Lou Jiwei.

S&P Global Ratings estimates the gap between local government revenue, which includes state revenue and central government remittance payments, and total spending will be around 16% this year. That's close to the 2020 shortfall as budgets take a hit as spending to fight the pandemic and tax cuts to support businesses surges.

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