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CPI Comes In Smoking Hot At 6.8% As The BLS Plans Best Way To "Intervene" In Inflation Statistics
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the US dramatically changed how it calculated consumer inflation back in the 1980s with the most important difference being the CPI of the 1970s included house price inflation, the current measure does not. Instead, home price pressures have been swept the Owner-Equivalent Rent which can be whatever people in power want it to be. If today's CPI did include house prices in its measurement, the currently reported inflation numbers for house price inflation would push CPI and core CPI to double-digit gains.
The CPI printed +6.8% YoY - right as expected and the fastest rate of increase since 1982.
Core CPI, Which removes almost everything you spend money on every day rose at 4.9% YoY, The highest level since 1991.
The drivers of inflation were increasingly broad-based, rather than just in a few categories. Both Goods and Services costs rose, as did Food and Energy prices, everything rose in price.
The shelter index increased 0.5 percent over the month, as the indexes for rent and owners’ equivalent rent both rose 0.4 percent; these increases were the same as in October. Nov Shelter inflation rose 3.84% Y/Y, up from 3.38% in October and Nov Rent inflation jumped 3.05% Y/Y, up from 2.70% in October. The index for lodging away from home rose 2.9 percent in November after rising 1.4 percent in October.
Vehicle indexes also continued to rise in November. The index for used cars and trucks rose 2.5 percent over the month, the same increase as in October. The index for new vehicles rose 1.1 percent in November after a 1.4-percent increase in October.
The index for household furnishings and operations increased in November, rising 0.8 percent, the same increase as in October. The apparel index rose 1.3 percent in November after being unchanged in October. The index for airline fares turned up in November, rising 4.7 percent after declining in recent months.
Fed funds futures were fully pricing in a rate hike by the June meeting, alongside more than 70% chance of one by the May meeting (and almost 3 full rate-hikes priced-in by the end of 2022), but notably 2Y Yields dropped on the CPI print as it missed the +7.0% anticipation.
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