This pullback has some differences. Regime change might be here. Market Update 12-6-21.

We may need to move the goalposts a bit on things I talked about in the last video. I saw a lot of anomalies in this pullback so far that have me more cautious than every previous correction in this entire bull run. Normally, I would be screaming to buy here. But, not seeing the same quick rush to hedge and quick dumping of long positions as we have seen in previous corrections.

0:00 Intro
0:04 Talking about getting some things wrong in the previous video
2:15 The most rapid sell-off in years, outlier price action
Things missed:
3:45 Things Missed #1 VIX Term Structure
6:35 Talking about Trading Dashboard for a bit
7:38 Things Missed #2 Sector Correlations(Thanks to Tradewell for the data)
8:15 Discussion on Walk-Forward Backtesting and Building Models and why more recent backtests that fit the current regime matter more
11:20 Things Missed #3 SPX&VVIX 5 day correlations
Long Term things that might matter now:
12:55 LT Issues #1 Short Interest
14:41 LT Issues #2 Margin Debt
17:21 LT Issues #3 ETF Assets Leveraged Long
19:23 LT Issues #4 Options Speculation Index
20:22 LT Issues #5 Hedge Fund Exposure
23:14 LT Issues #6 LT Breadth Divergences
23:44 LT Issues #7 FMS overweight
Shorter Term Issues and Things that are different:
24:35 ST Issues #1 COT Discussion
28:55 ST Issues #2 Insider Selling
29:28 ST Issues #3 Seasonality
30:40 ST Issues #4 VIX Fat Tail
33:24 ST Issues #5 Major Rolling of Puts down to 4000
34:30 Tier 1 Alpha, Puts at 4400
35:13 ST Issues #6 SPY Social Sentiment
37:36 ST Issues #7 Major Inflows on this Dip
38:25 ST Issues #8 VandaTrack Retail Track of Flows--Very Aggressive buying of this dip.
Reasons we might get a Relief Rally:
39:10 Relief Rally? #1 AAII Bull Ratio
39:53 Speculator Combo(Was supposed to be in the COT section)
40:10 Relief Rally? #2 AIM Model(not as supportive as I would like, but some cool off for sure)
41:00 Relief Rally? #3 NAAIM Model(still too bullish TBH)
41:15 Relief Rally? #4 BofA Bull/Bear(some reset but would like to see more, might be enough for a bounce)
41:21 Relief Rally? #5 DIX still fairly supportive
42:26 Relief Rally? #6 Equity ETF DIX supportive
43:18 Relief Rally? #7 FANGMAN+T DIX mildly supportive
43:41 Relief Rally? #8 SPY Liquidity Premium(delayed but finally buying now)
44:43 ES Price Action and the current Swing Trading Plan
50:29 QQQ DIX and Price Action
50:55 IWM DIX and Price Action
51:40 SMH DIX and Price Action
53:39 Equity Hedging Index
53:18 Credit Spread Alert Website(Credit Markets Still healthy overall)
53:50 Thanks to HorseLover Fat on Twitter!

Hope everyone has a good trading week and I will see you in the next video!

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